Thursday, April 24, 2008
I haven't said anything political in a while, but I think I've finally decided that my initial prediction about the Democratic primaries needs to be revised. I originally said that Hillary would eventually convince the superdelegates to support her, winding up as the nominee... even though I thought Obama had the better chance to defeat McCain. I'd like to spin that 180 degrees--I think the Democrat party has pretty much decided that Obama is the guy. In the end, Hillary will have a series of convincing arguments as to why she should get the nomination, but I think she's running out of track--the finish line will arrive before she can pull ahead in any meaningful way. However, I now believe that she would likely have been the stronger nominee. Not that it matters if she doesn't get chosen, of course. But I think Obama has been wounded by the primary battle--what was once his biggest strength, being a "different," "transcendent" candidate, has turned into him being a very gifted politician, but still just another politician. It remains to be seen whether the "Reagan Democrats" who seem to favor Clinton more will prefer him, or the "maverick" John McCain. Now watch my luck--now that I have flip-flopped worse than a Mitt Romney or John Kerry, Hillary will probably find a way to win anyway and make me look bad.