Thursday, April 24, 2008

Revised Predictions

I haven't said anything political in a while, but I think I've finally decided that my initial prediction about the Democratic primaries needs to be revised. I originally said that Hillary would eventually convince the superdelegates to support her, winding up as the nominee... even though I thought Obama had the better chance to defeat McCain. I'd like to spin that 180 degrees--I think the Democrat party has pretty much decided that Obama is the guy. In the end, Hillary will have a series of convincing arguments as to why she should get the nomination, but I think she's running out of track--the finish line will arrive before she can pull ahead in any meaningful way. However, I now believe that she would likely have been the stronger nominee. Not that it matters if she doesn't get chosen, of course. But I think Obama has been wounded by the primary battle--what was once his biggest strength, being a "different," "transcendent" candidate, has turned into him being a very gifted politician, but still just another politician. It remains to be seen whether the "Reagan Democrats" who seem to favor Clinton more will prefer him, or the "maverick" John McCain. Now watch my luck--now that I have flip-flopped worse than a Mitt Romney or John Kerry, Hillary will probably find a way to win anyway and make me look bad.


MichaelPolutta said...

Boy, is THIS ever a choice between 3 unsavories for me!

I believe that what Obama has shown is an ability to convince people that he is different - when, in fact, he is as left as they come. I'm sorry, but no matter what your political view, you can't seriously suggest that the far left position is a unifying position. (No, Larry, you have not done this.)

I don't think Hillary has a shot either. She's also running out of cash.

McCain is an absolute enigma to me. As I look back on his ads run here in GA that referred to him as "a true conservative" I have to work hard to not puke. What a crock.

Goode Design said...

This is the fabled Kobayashi Maru from Star Trek (no, i'm not a trekkie... that would be Mike).

We need people of substance in office, not politicians. I have all the faith in the world in our electoral system... but only as far as you have someone worth voting for. But I'll vote. It is my civic duty.

Watching the loyal followers of all 3 candidates is like watching a herd of lemmings. When will they figure out that the politician will promise them anything to get a vote?