Friday, December 30, 2011

Predictions for 2012

I've seen several sites here at year-end that give various predictions about the coming year.  Here's a few from me, just so I can look back and check on them later:

  • In politics, Mitt Romney will win the GOP nomination.  He will pick Marco Rubio of Florida as his running mate.  The GOP will hold the house and get a 50-50 split in the senate, with VP Rubio breaking ties (yep, that means Romney will win.  I'll say 52-48% in the popular vote, and closer in the electoral college).  However, the senate being so close will result in numerous filibusters and threats of filibusters, so we'll still have gridlock.
  • Economically, things will continue in our current stagflationary pattern.  "Recovery" on the jobs front will continue, albeit slowly, but prices will rise.  Hopefully wages will, too.  (The old line about the depression was that it really wasn't so bad... IF you had a job.)
  • In the 2012 Olympics, an American will make the finals in at least one distance event, but will not medal.  The USA 4x100 team will finally get the baton around the track, but it won't matter, as Jamaica will have a team with all three open 100 medalists on it.  The USA basketball team will have less star power than 4 years ago, but will perform better, for that very reason.
  • In football, the USC Gamecocks will be good, but fall short of this year's 11-win season (yes, that means I'm picking a bowl win on Jan 2).  I'm thinking 9 regular-season wins, with losses to LSU, Arkansas, and Florida.  We beat Georgia again, but they still win the East due to their easier schedule.  In traditional USC fashion, idiot fans will complain about 9-10 wins, not recognizing the amazing leap that has been made.  Marcus Lattimore will be a Heisman contender, but will not win.
  • Clemson will win the ACC again, and lose to USC again.  They will beat Boise State in the Orange Bowl.  Sammy Watkins will also be a Heisman contender, but will not win. 
  • The SEC will not win the national championship game, as their champion will not be IN the game.  Southern Cal will beat Ohio State, both of whom will be undefeated at the time.  The SEC champ (Alabama) will have two losses.
  • In the NBA, the Heat will not win a championship.  Neither will the Lakers.  Which is good enough for me.
  • With the Romney victory in 2012, the news media will rediscover that 8% unemployment is really not that good, and even when it drops, the slow pace of the drop and the amount that can be attributed to discouraged workers leaving the workforce will be noted.
  • The Republican party will be stupid.
  • In high school sports, my PG teams will have a rough year in football (but will be really good after a year), will be even better in basketball, will repeat as XC and volleyball champions, and will contend for a repeat title in track.  I won't call the win, but I will predict that the top two teams will be us and Orangeburg Prep.
  • Israel will bomb Iran's nuclear sites.  We will pretend that was a naughty thing.
  • Gas will cost over $4 per gallon during the summer.
  • As inflation rises, so will interest rates.  Stocks will be sluggish, but the bond market will improve.
  • An offer of statehood and peace will be made to the Palestinians.  They'll find a way to screw it up.
These are not entirely wild guesses--there is at least some element of reading the tea leaves involved.  But I'm not betting any money on them!

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