Wednesday, January 9, 2008

New Hampshire Results

Well, I did better than some of the pros. I successfully picked McCain over Romney. It would have helped a bit if I had paid attention to the fact that Thompson didn't campaign at all in NH before I picked him over Huckabee, but that far down nobody cares. And I was just as wrong as every other pundit in picking Obama over Clinton. Man, nobody saw that coming!

To anlayze the GOP side a bit, all the pros are going to tell you that Romney is now toast, that Michigan is must-win for him, and that McCain is resurgent after his bad summer. Wrong! Romney still has the most delegates of anyone, and will have the most going into Super Tuesday. He, along with Giuliani, are the only two who can really compete after that. And Giuliani shares the stage with McCain in the category of "tough on terror, but not really conservative." The only reason McCain has done so well is because Rudy has not been there to cut into his territory. Trust me: after Super Tuesday, it'll be painfully obvious that the mainstream GOP is not going to give their nomination to either Rudy or Huck. And when it comes down to the end, Romney will be the last guy standing. I'll still be pulling for Fred, but that's a long shot at best.

The Democrat side is more interesting now. Here's the thing: Obama has to give the impression that he really can beat Hillary before SC, or he's done. As the first state with a racially diverse population to hold a primary, SC is really key for Dems. You might think that would be right up Obama's alley, but the Clintons are especially beloved of the SC African-American "establishment." If she beats him in that demographic, he's done. I still think she's the worse of the two as a general-election candidate (I mean that both ways--worse in electability and worse for the country), but if Obama wants to win, he has to take the nomination from her--it's hers if she can just hold on. I don't think Edwards has much chance--if it's Hillary vs. the other guy, Obama is the other guy, not Edwards.

If Hillary and Romney go on to the finals, it's a dice roll. I think her high negatives make her the weakest of the potential Democrat contenders, but I'm not going to go so far as to write her off. I've made the mistake of thinking the American people wouldn't be seduced by a Clinton before.


C. S. Fox said...

I am still in agreement with you on how you are calling this one.
I am beginning to lean more towards Romney.
I also believe that a vote for Hillary is a vote to put Bill in the White House yet again...
She has no experience in anything except being 1st lady!

MichaelPolutta said...

I also agree with your assessment.

Some time ago I heard this question, which encapsulates Mrs. Clinton for me. "If her last name was not Clinton, would you know who she is?"

Obama frightens me a bit, because he's such an unknown. The "Oprah Factor" makes him viable. Ugh.

I'm looking for one of the candidates to capture me. Hasn't really happened yet. I admit it, I find Huck charming. I don't think he's presidential, though. I was enthused initially by the candidacy of Fred, but I've seen NOTHING from him, really, since that announcement. I have a favorable first impression of Romney, but he seems SO slick. I dunno.

I dunno...